Punt.com - A Blog About Gambling by a Professional Gambler.

Blogging?

Hi folks, I know it's been a while, I'm sorry for that.  I'm sure it's obvious to my readers that a lot of the time I either can't find the time to write, can't be bothered, or as is usually the case - don't have much to say that hasn't already been said on other excellent blogs like Mr. Iverson's , Cassini's, Scott Ferguson's etc.  So perhaps you'll understand if I don't apologise for the lack of content and make no promises about when the next post will arrive!

Leaving things dead like this for so long after an angry last post was regrettable however, I was overly harsh towards Betfair and as was pointed out by several commenters, my premium charge recalculation was not as bad as I was expecting.  That is at least some good news I don't mind making a tit of myself over.  Tit making over (hopefully), lets move on, the game continues...

Oh, btw, Mark Davies of Betfair is now blogging, and it's very interesting, well done Mark.

Deep in Lifetime Premium Charge mire.

As reported last week in their online 'chat' session, Betfair are to change the time over which the premium charge is calculated.  Currently it is over 60 weeks, soon it will be over the lifetime of the account.  The fine details about how it will work are yet to be finalised - first £1000 profit allowance? number of markets? etc.  But the important point is this time period change.

Naturally, not having the full commission figures for my accounts over their lifetime to hand, I requested a spreadsheet showing this.  Shortly after, it arrived in my inbox. 

Before I go on, I will explain that I have spent a lot of the time since the premium charge's introduction getting my previous 60 weeks commission level over the 20% threshold so that I can bet without worrying about what I'm actually going to be paying should I have a good run the next week.  With this in mind, I was slightly apprehensive, but not overly so, about what I would find in the lifetime spreadsheet (my accounts are almost 8 years old, after a few years you start to forget the sorts of things you used to trade heavily).

To my horror, the sheet came up showing that I was about to find myself in a horrendous £130k premium charge hole.  Sure, it showed a very healthy profit too, but the picture it displayed was not the full one, let me explain.

I mentioned before that you can begin to forget what you had been up to in previous years.  Several years ago I discovered there was a recurring arbitrage opportunity.  As this was 'free money', I obviously took the chance to build on my bank (which was already growing well 'organically' from normal trading, which accounted for - and still does - the majority of my profit).

This was an arb between a particular firm and Betfair, and it was in very good size.  I did very many arbs of £30k or more,  this was back in the day when this firm had the stomach for a very large bet... and they loved me!  Because a very large % of these bets were winners on Betfair, and losers with them.  Btw, said firm has me heavily restricted these days, even though I am one of their biggest losers.

In the end I had given them in excess of £500k, I'm unsure of the exact amount (you just get on with arbing when it's there).  Lets fast forward to 2009 and the introduction of a lifetime premium charge, with the prospect of an excess of £500k added to an already large profit figure and you can see where this is going.

5 years ago, I was merrily arbing away.  I could not have foreseen a lifetime premium charge 5 years later (let alone, allowed for it!), and when it is introduced, I will now be paying fairly heavily for not using a time machine (it's ridiculous).

I had given up moaning about the charge, I felt it wasn't well thought out or implemented to begin with, but I decided to get on with things and introduce a few strategies to nullify it a bit.

It's highly ironic, that it's arbitrage that has me in this mess.  Since that is one of the strategies Betfair is quite happy with, even promoting it as a way out of the premium charge...  There's serious problems if you start winning every time on Betfair though - that isn't supposed to happen.  It would appear, the arbs I thought had a margin, were 20% worse than I thought!

Which is the main point of this posting:  Why should I be punished for, the method / strategy with which I bet in the past, when I had no idea this would be bought in (and no chance to allow for it) in the future?

The solution:  A lifetime premium charge from the time when the first premium charge was introduced.  It's simple,  fair, and everyone was in the picture.

And I wouldn't have the prospect of having to turnover however many £millions in wins and losses to counter it.  Moan over (for now)...  until I call my account manager later.

Cricket lookalike..

George W. Bush, and Ricky Ponting... seeing as Ponting just made a howler of a drop, I thought I'd put this in now, particularly as the former President is no stranger to a few howlers of his own.

 

A new betting social network.. and twitter.

I'd like to draw reader's attention to The Sports Exchange which is a new social network for punters of all persuasions.  There's some good discussion going on and perhaps some momentum gathering, it's worth a go.  Particularly as there's a good post on the same subject as my previous blog entry - here.  This is imo, the right way to go about things.  The betting community is the market, and we do have a lot of power, it's harnessing it that's difficult - and that is what needs to happen for things to change.  I've just signed up.

Talking of social networks, you can now follow me on twitter, if you haven't joined twitter yet and can't see the use in 140 character 'status updates', let me say that till you use it, it's difficult to know just how useful it is.  Those of you with facebook profiles will know about status updates, but on twitter there is none of the politics that go along with them.  No unwritten rules about who you follow, or who can see your profile... It's pure information, some of it is tedious, but some of it is genuinely brilliant.

By following who you want to, you effectively build your own feed of information from people you personally find interesting.  There more 'interesting' people you follow, the more useful stuff comes out of it - I've learnt about stuff I'd never have known about had I not joined.

There's the usual mix of attention seekers (celebrities included) and those that use the service the way it was designed to be used.  These are easily spotted, though if I'm honest, I quite enjoy following some of the obvious show offs.

If there's a problem I encounter with twitter from a betting perspective, it's that it's quite difficult to find genuine punters who aren't selling a system, or marketing something else.  I find I'm following fewer bettors, and more sports people.  Maybe we can change that a bit.  Join up, add me on and say hello.  Feel free to pilfer the list of people I follow.

Betfair's monopoly will eventually end..

..Even if you can't imagine right now how this would occur, something will eventually come along to topple the giant.   Inspired by an excellent small post by Cassini at Green All Over (where he gives examples of few fallen giants) I thought I'd add my 2p in the hope that someone will take up the mantle. (btw I have a cracking domain name if you have the right idea ;)

What will eventually topple Betfair does not necessarily need to be completely different (just in the right areas).  As their website grew, they moved further away from their original idea.  Their decision making process became messy, resulting in poor choices in usability, cost, design, customer service and regulation - the number of areas upon which improvements can be offered by a rival increases, as do the grievances of the current userbase (see Premium Charge, Cross Matching etc. as Cassini pointed out).

What is required IMO is a return to, and improvement upon, what the exchange concept was always about, betting person to person.  Of course Betfair is still doing this, but they increasingly push their alternative products, where they take a much greater share of the profits.  This aside, there are innovations to be made in the way people bet with one another, the way markets are set up and the social aspect of the site.  I have a few ideas, but I won't be posting them here.

One thing I am more than happy to post is that any rival would do well to push for much better regulation.  A site that actively seeks the same restrictions (or a variation) placed upon FSA regulated exchanges would be a leap in the right direction.  Best practices must surely involve not placing bets on your own exchange (even if it is hedging multiples), not compromising on best execution (cross matching) - exploiting your own platform's short-comings for profit.  Conflicts of interest (or potential conflicts of interest) need to be banished, as does this ability to switch between Bookmaker and Exchange at will, exchanges are very different to the former and should be treated as such.

We all brush these issues aside currently because liquidity is king,  but undercurrent builds with each step Betfair takes at the moment.  I met recently with one of the top guy's at Betfair, I mentioned that the users were disillusioned with the experience.  I told him we need some good news, a step in the right direction... It's overdue.  Perhaps a rebate on PC, or indeed a change in the way the charge is set up.. or frankly anything that is good for users would be helpful (when was the last time we had good news from BF ?).  Hope you took it on board.

There will come a day when something more exciting and interesting to use will arrive.  Something that experienced users see potential for profit in, at the same time as casual users have real enjoyment using.  When that day arrives, the switch away from Betfair will most probably be quicker than they could imagine.

Epic Wimbledon Final.

The statistics..

Roger Federer v. Andy Roddick
5-7, 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 16-14.

(Federer - Roddick)
Aces:  50 - 27

1st Serve %: 63 - 69

% Won on 1st Serve: 83 - 89

% Won on 2nd Serve: 57 - 41

Winners: 107 - 74

Unforced Errors: 38 - 33

Break Point Conversions: 1/7 - 2/5

Total Points: 223 - 213

Duration: 256 Minutes

Total traded on Betfair: £53,079,714

Dear Betfair..

I'd very much like to be able to see my profit and loss statement today, thank you! 

It seems many of us have been unable to access this most vital of website sections for much of today.  Along with trouble loading the market navigation bar, it's been a sticky day on their website.

The "geezer brigade" quarters..

Much being made today about how old the 4 guys are left in the quarter finals at Wimbledon, the oldest for 35 years.  There's some potential in these matches today, it's just a same that they clash in the schedule.  The same went for yesterday's ladies quarters - I always forget how anti-climatic these days are, you've been watching it til 9:30pm the previous 8 days and suddenly it gets to 5:30pm and there's nothing doing.  Hopefully the men's matches will last a little longer.

I'm still trying to figure out what I'm doing with my large green on Karlovic outright, I also on Federer, so whoever comes out of that quarter I'm doing well on.  I will probably square it off to some extent.  It's always a tough match up for Federer this one, you don't get many chances against Karlovic, but the chances he does get he should take without any trouble.  There's always a tendency to think that it's an even contest, a serving lottery.  But the fact is, if Federer gets the return in (and he is one of the best at reading an opponent's serve) then he is a heavy favourite to win that point, and that tips the balance of pressure onto Karlovic rather than Fed.  Price has this factored in though, so lets wait and see.

Hewitt's played some of his best tennis for years in the last week, but Roddick is also playing great.  No opinion on scoreline here, just hoping for a great match.  Apparently Andy and Brooklyn have been sleeping on the floor due to an overly soft mattress during the whole of Wimbledon... you'd think they could afford somewhere nice to stay! ..or a new matress.

Hoping for great things from the Haas / Djokovic match up, though I think Djoko is playing much better at Wimbledon than he did at Halle where Haas got the better of him.  I get the feeling he might run away with it, but Tommy seems inspired at the moment.

I don't see Murray having too much trouble versus the green clay specialist (!) JCF.  But you never know.

So there you have it, 4 match previews, and not an opinion in sight.  Guess I better put down some scoreline predictions, maybe you can average these with what the other blogs are suggesting for some sort of collective wisdom.  I won't be betting on these btw.

Federer - Karlovic : 3-0
Djokovic - Haas : 3-2
Roddick - Hewitt : 5 sets, trainer called to court.
Murray - Ferrero : 3-0

The Wimbledon roof and a hoax £20m winner.

No blog entries for a little while, you were probably thinking I'd disappeared again.  It's been a busy week, maybe my busiest of the year, anyone getting the time to post blog entries as well as trade for 10 hours a day has my admiration for the their dedication... They also spend too long on the computer!

Yesterday saw the first 'in-play' usage of the World's most expensive roof at Wimbledon.  Though they were a little hasty in closing it.  The Wimbledon cheeses must have been like kids with a new toy, it was always going to get closed at the first drop of rain, the Chairman probably had his finger hovering over the button as the first cloud appeared. 

To then keep it closed for the rest of the day was a surprise, but they got lucky when Murray's match went on longer than might have been expected (Wawrinka played well, but never took half the chances he might have).  I have to say I got the feeling the roof affected Murray to begin with, his pre-match (mental) prep would have been for an open roof, his 'onboard computer' (as Sam Smith would commentate) taking a while to figure out the change in conditions - Set one over.

So we ended up with the first 'night match' at Wimbledon.  The acoustics were completely different, very loud and echoey, perfect for creating a great atmosphere for the home favourite.  They should do more night matches imo, it was quite a spectacle.  Will they?  I doubt it... The company line is that it is an outdoor tournament.

I thought that it was perhaps a little easier for the server inside, the speed of the court looked the same though - incredibly slow!   Or maybe it's just me, but the courts look to be playing slower than ever this year.  I tweeted (Follow Me) a day or two ago that I don't buy into the courts getting quicker as they get older.  The ball simply bounces higher, the dryness allowing more spin to take grip and thus the ball 'sits up' - they get slower the deeper into the tournament we go.  I would think they are slower than the US Open quite easily.  Much is made of the change from Roland Garros clay to Wimbledon grass , it's not so much the speed anymore, it's the height of the bounce and the type of bounce.  I seem to recall a 27 stroke rally in Murray's first game yesterday!

Onto our £20m hoax in the News of the World!  This was great if you caught it, unfortunately the story has now been taken down from the NotW website, because it is fiction!  (They don't print fiction do they?)  Anyone who read the story with any knowledge would have spotted this anyway, it was laughable.  You can catch up with some of the claims made by the millionaire over at Scott's blog, along with the statement made by Betfair in response.

Ladies quarters today, I don't have much opinion on the matches, other than Venus should destroy Aggie Radwanska.  I'm concerned that Azarenka could push Serena, though I'm on both of them outright, most of it is on Serena, I see this as her toughest test next to Venus, though I am fairly confident Serena would take care of a match with her Sister.

My men's outright book is looking good.  I backed Roger at the the start, as well as Murray, Hewitt and Karlovic.  Got out of Murray yesterday, having traded back and forth on him through the tournament, I'm a little surprised he has remained around 4.1, yesterday wasn't a confidence builder, though I think the general sentiment is that he'll have less difficulty with Ferrero than Wawrinka.  I'm not sure on that one, JCF is loving the slow courts.

Market also looks to have some concerns with Karlovic and Fed.  Which is good for me, I will look to do something with my very large green on Karlovic at some point.  Happy trading..

Late start to Wimbledon for me.

I missed the first days play at Wimbledon, because I went to watch!  (Thanks to Betfair for the invite - you still won't get any favours from me on here though ;)  So it was a free day out, but was it really free?  Probably not, it was most definitely expensive - with the biggest and most profitable tournament of the year on terrestrial TV, this is where I have made the most for the last 4/5 years.  So, it wasn't an easy decision to go, but I do believe it is good karma to enjoy the spoils, there's an awful lot of people that would kill to get onto center court.  Though apparently not some of the people in the box who had the US Open golf on, shocking!

Anyway, it's day 2 already, and I'm not even warmed up.  I have an outright pick in the ladies after seeing her play yesterday, I can't see anyone getting past Serena, 3.8 yesterday was good enough for me (3.65 now).  In the men's I'm on Fed and Murray from last week, Fed's price progressing well, Murray slightly backwards.

I watched Djokovic take on Benneteau yesterday, he looks a little fragile mentally at times, his body language was not confident in the first two sets, after that Benne got tired and Djoko's fitness looked unusually good.  Effortless in the end, but lacked a lot when compared to Fed.

So many matches today, but first stop for me is the Chiropractor - is it me or do a lot of us bloggers have back problems?  And isn't David Ferrer a little short against Kevin Kim (1.15/16) ?  Maybe.